COVID-19 Response and Recovery Monthly Bulletin (September 2020)

1 COVID-19 Epi and Health situation update

• The pandemic situation in the country has continued to deteriorate over the past week and month. Nearly each week of September saw another record in the number of new cases broken, with the latest being this past Wednesday, when 1,013 new cases were reported. This record was quickly surpassed on Thursday - the first day of October - when another 1,022 new cases were reported. The total number of reported cases currently stands at 54,064;

• A total of 16,122 new cases were reported in September.
  This represents 30% of all cases reported since the pandemic reached the country in March. The daily average number of new cases was 537 during the month, which is 144 cases more compared to the previous month and relatively close to but lower than the weekly figure reported last week. The average number of new cases over the past seven days is 730, reflecting a more pronounced acceleration of the pandemic;

• The deteriorating situation is also reflected in the rapidly decreasing number of days during which new milestones in the pandemic are reached, measured in increments of 10,000 cases. While it took 94 days from the beginning of the pandemic in the country before the first 10,000 cases were reported, it took only 19 days for the total number of cases to grow from 40,000 to 50,000;

• The total number of active cases gradually increased in September. At the beginning of the month, a little over 10,000 cases were active. This number increased to over 12,700 until the end of the month and increased even further on Thursday, surpassing 13,200. Currently, 24.5% of all registered cases are active cases;

• The overall crude cumulative incidence of cases per 100,000 stands at 1,556, placing Moldova near the top of countries with some of the highest incidence of cases in Europe and in the region. The crude cumulative incidence of cases for the month of September is 464 (and 485 over the last 30 days), which is 113 cases more compared to the previous month. The crude cumulative incidence of cases over the last seven days is 147 and over the last 14 days is 261, with both of these numbers registering an increase over the past week, which is a reflection of the same acceleration trend captured by some of the figures above;

• The number of deaths increased by 325 in September, which is 108 fatalities more compared to the previous month. The average number of daily deaths over the same period is 10.83. However, the seven-day average of deaths ranged between 8.0 and 12.3 during the course of the month. The average number of serious cases also increased from 484 in August to 569 in September, with a more pronounced growth in serious cases being observed over the past few days. The number of serious cases now stands at 649. The case fatality rate, on the other hand, decreased slightly from 2.7% at the beginning of the month to 2.5% at the end;

• The total number of deaths now stands at 1,336, and the case fatality rate is 2.5%. The average number of daily deaths over the last seven days, including Thursday, is 12.00. The average age of patients who have died from the disease is 66.5. This is somewhat higher than the 66.2 figure reported at the beginning of September. Overall, over 90% of all deaths have been reported in patients 50 years of age and older;

• The number of patients who have recovered from the disease continued to increase during the month of September, which saw 13,125 recoveries reported. Although the figure is considerable, it stands significantly below the number of new cases reported during the month, which led to a substantial increase in active cases as reflected above. Weekly figures do not show any improvement in the situation, with the gap between new cases and recoveries increasing to more than 1,000 cases last week. The total number of recoveries now stands at 39,499, including the number reported on Thursday. This represents 73.1% of all cases;

• The contagion rate (R0) was relatively stable for the first three weeks of September, ranging between 1.03 and 1.05. However, last week, the figure spiked to 1.11, indicating a deterioration in the pandemic situation. The contagion rate is uneven across the country, with certain districts registering considerably higher rates than others. Ocnita, Glodeni, Stefan Voda, Cahul, Leova, Cantemir and Soldanesti have some of the highest contagion rates in the country, which range between 1.4 and 1.8.
  The contagion rate in Chisinau is 1.1;

• The share of health care workers in the total number of cases decreased gradually from 11.9% at the beginning of September to the current level of 11.1%. Nearly 6,000 doctors, nurses, medical assistants and other staff from the health care sector have been infected with the virus since the beginning of the outbreak;

• In terms of geographical distribution, Chisinau, with 44% of all confirmed cases, is the most affected area if the number of cases is considered. Since the beginning of September, the share of cases in Chisinau increased by 2.4 p.p. in the total number of cases. Transnistria region, ATU Gagauzia, Balti and Ialoveni follow in the list of most affected areas, accounting for 3-7% of all cases each. Although the share of cases in these areas in the total number of cases has varied slightly since the beginning of September, the relative extent to which these areas have been affected by the pandemic has not changed. All other areas currently have 2% or less of the total number of cases each;

• If the size of the population is considered, with nearly 3,600 cases per 100,000, Chisinau is the most affected area in the country. The capital city is followed by Balti, which has surpassed the 2,000-cases mark per 100,000, and Ialoveni, Basarabeasca, Taraclia, ATU Gagauzia, Edinet and Straseni, which have surpassed the 1,500-case mark per 100,000 people. Although most of these areas remained at the top of list of the most affected districts, some shifts in their order in the list have been observed since the beginning of September because of the greater acceleration of the pandemic in certain regions of the country. For example, Basarabeasca moved from the 12th to the 4th most affected area since the beginning of the month if the size of the population is considered;