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In September 2023, El Niño was officially declared in FSM, raising concerns for the upcoming months. The drying trend, intensifying from October to November, typically peaks in January after an El Niño event. Anticipating this, it was feared that Western FSM might experience severe drought conditions.
FSM relies on underground, surface water, and rainwater for freshwater. Small, low-lying islands are especially vulnerable, being fully dependent on rainwater and shallow wells. Historical data indicates that past El Niño years brought drought during winter and spring, with Yap and western Chuuk affected earlier and more severely due to weaker winds and warm ocean water surges.
The adverse impacts are exacerbated by climate change, where elevated sea-surface temperatures disrupt natural weather patterns, inhibiting cloud formation and reducing regional rainfall. Higher temperatures contribute to increased evaporation, leading to a substantial decline in available water resources. The broader effects of climate change, including rising salt content, increased flooding, and droughts, pose significant threats to the fresh water availability and quality in FSM.
As of January 2024, the Climate and Ocean Bulletin indicates that El Niño conditions prevail, marked by above-average Equatorial Sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric anomalies consistent with El Niño indicate a robust presence, and it iS anticipated that El Niño will persist over the next several seasons. ENSO neutral conditions are favored during April to June 2024, with a 73 per cent chance. Drought conditions persistently spread throughout the region, with Pohnpei currently classified as DO (abnormally dry), while Kosrae maintains its status with "no drought conditions" as of now.
Similarly, recent climate and ocean conditions further underscore the vulnerability of Micronesia, with below-normal rainfall recorded in Pohnpei and Kosrae for December 2023. Over the past three months (October to December 2023), Pohnpei experienced near-normal rainfall, while Kosrae faced below-normal rainfall. Micronesia, heavily reliant on underground, surface water, and rainfall for daily water needs, becomes more vulnerable to water scarcity during El Niño events due to its remote location and logistical challenges, including high transportation costs. These interconnected factors emphasize the need for proactive measures and resilience strategies to mitigate the potential impacts of ongoing and future El Niño events in the region.