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Description of the Event
Approximate date of impact
The drying trend intensifies through October and November, reaching its peak in January of the year following an El Niño event. During this period, rainfall in the western Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) can be as much as 50-60 per cent below the average from January through April. Based on these predictions, it is anticipated that FSM will face severe drought conditions in the first quarter of 2024, especially El Niño is officially declared by the end of September 2023.
What is expected to happen?
El Niño, characterized by elevated sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, is evolving and foreshadows potential consequences for the North Pacific Islands. The expected rise in ocean temperatures is likely to disrupt natural weather patterns, inhibiting cloud formation and reducing regional rainfall. This hotter climate triggers increased evaporation, leading to a significant decline in available water resources. It is essential to note that many North Pacific Islands heavily rely on rainfall to meet daily water needs. Any deviation in rainfall patterns could potentially lead to a severe water crisis, exacerbated by the islands' remote locations and logistical challenges, including high transportation costs.
The severity of dry conditions is closely tied to El Niño's intensity. Historically, very strong El Niño events have resulted in prolonged dry spells, with rainfall returning to normal levels around September in the post-El Niño year and dryness persisting until June of the following year. Adding complexity, there is a proven correlation between the frequency of tropical cyclones and El Niño, with significantly more cyclones during El Niño years. This not only increases vulnerability but also underscores the urgency for decisive action plans.
The Micronesia Red Cross Society (MRCS) is currently gathering data to assess the impact of this slow-onset disaster. However, the urgency to mobilize resources and stocks to meet future needs is evident. The trigger for requesting a Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF) is the potential severity of the situation, including escalated drought and cyclone risks, the islands' vulnerability, and logistical challenges. Therefore, prompt readiness actions are crucial, focusing on resource mobilization and strategic planning to alleviate expected hardships. Once the country officially acknowledges the drought situation, upgrading the imminent IFRC-DREF to a full-response IFRC-DREF will be imperative to safeguard communities and ensure sustainability in these challenging times. Once MRCS receives more data to confirm the impact of this slow-onset disaster, it will start to mobilise resources and stocks to cater for future emerging needs. To fully respond to the effects of this drought, this will be confirmed once the effects are visible, and the country is declared in a drought situation where this imminent IFRC-DREF will then be upgraded to a full response IFRC-DREF.
El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95 per cent chance through December 2023 -February 2024). (Source: EL NIÑO/Southern Oscillation (Enso) Diagnostic Discussion issued by Climate Prediction Center/Ncep/Nws, 10 August 2023). Logistically it’s challenging in Nov/Dec to mobilise hence the activities as much as possible to be setup up and implemented as quickly as possible and subsequently, in the worst case of transport challenges, dissemination will continue via local volunteers and within communities. The declaration of drought in the country will act as the second trigger to scale up the operation to the response pillar.