Mexico

Tropical storm Lorena advisory number 10

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000
WTPZ33 KNHC 040833
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2001

...POORLY ORGANIZED LORENA CONTINUING NORTHWARD...RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MAZATLAN. THIS WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

LORENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LORENA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH LORENA IS WEAKENING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...17.9 N...107.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040835
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2001

MULTISPECTRAL IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF LORENA IS AND EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WELL REMOVED FROM ANY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BIT OF AN UNKNOWN. EARLIER RECON AND SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA DID NOT CONCLUSIVELY SHOW ANY TROPICAL STORM WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BASED MAINLY ON RULES FOR WEAKENING SYSTEMS...ARE STILL AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE IN DEFERENCE TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME TROPICAL STORM WINDS MAY BE OCCURRING IN THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA LATER IN THE DAY MAY HELP DETERMINE IF LORENA HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/7. DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MOVE LORENA ALONG A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY MOST OF THE NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMS...CALLING FOR LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE CLIPER AND THE UKMET WANT TO MOVE LORENA CLOSER TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THAN THE OTHER MODELS...THE CYCLONE WOULD LIKELY DIE BEFORE IT COULD BECOME A SERIOUS THREAT TO THAT AREA.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT INITIAL INTENSITY OF LORENA...IT WILL NOT BE A TROPICAL STORM MUCH LONGER. THE CIRCULATION IS VERY SHALLOW... AND THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL...WITH DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO THEREAFTER.

RAINFALL IS THE MAJOR THREAT FROM LORENA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS MOISTURE MAY INTERACT WITH A JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO EVEN AFTER LORENA DISSIPATES.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 17.9N 107.1W 35 KTS
12HR VT 04/1800Z 19.1N 107.0W 30 KTS
24HR VT 05/0600Z 20.6N 106.4W 25 KTS
36HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 105.7W 25 KTS
48HR VT 06/0600Z 23.4N 104.9W 20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
72HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED