000
WTPZ31 KNHC 020230
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2001
...JULIETTE REGENERATES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT JULIETTE HAS REDEVELOPED A CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO.
JULIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH JULIETTE IS LIMITED...THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...30.5 N...113.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT...TUESDAY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
-------------
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020229
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2001
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JULIETTE...WITH AMPLE BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION. THIS EVENING THE LOW FINALLY BEGAN GENERATING A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION... ENOUGH TO REQUALIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE LIMITED...AND THE SYSTEM RATES NO BETTER THAN A 1.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 12Z HAD SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 25 TO 30 KT VECTORS...SO I AM SETTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/3. JULIETTE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW...SO STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. THIS LOW IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE AVN AND UKMET TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN JULIETTE TO THE WEST. THE MID-LEVEL LOW PROBABLY WILL ALSO LIMIT OUTFLOW FROM THE FAIRLY SHALLOW CYCLONE...AND WITH THE SYSTEM SO CLOSE TO LAND...NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. IF IT SURVIVES THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...VERY COLD WATER AWAITS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 30.5N
113.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 02/1200Z 30.8N 113.1W 30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT 03/0000Z 31.0N 113.7W 25 KTS...OVER
WATER
36HR VT 03/1200Z 30.8N 114.8W 25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED