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Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 41

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

...HURRICANE WARNINGS DISCONTINUED AS EMILY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...EMILY STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO. THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. AT 4 PM CDT...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 99.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES ... 130 KM... SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES ...260 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENTLY... MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH. ALSO...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO THIS EVENING. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 99.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.