Mexico

Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 31

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HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

...EMILY HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH....

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES... 870 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 575 MILES... 925 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA