Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Maize production of 2024 season estimated below average, as dry conditions discouraged sowings
- Planting of 2025 minor maize season forecast below average, due to prolonged drought in Sinaloa
- Above-average import requirements forecast in 2024/25 marketing year
- Prices of black beans and rice higher than one year earlier
Maize production of 2024 season estimated below average, as dry conditions discouraged sowings
Harvesting of the 2024 main season maize crops, which account for about 80 percent of total annual production, is nearing completion and output is estimated at the below-average level of 18.7 million tonnes. Dry weather conditions across the country at the beginning of the planting stage in April and May 2024 discouraged farmers’ planting intentions, already weakened by lower year-on-year maize prices. As a result, maize plantings are estimated to be about 5 percent below average. Abundant precipitations from mid-June replenished soil moisture deficits in the key producing central states of Jalisco, México and Michoacán as well as in southern regions, providing conducive conditions for regular crop emergence and development. Overall, yield prospects are anticipated at near-average levels. Aggregate 2024 maize production, including minor and main season maize crops, is estimated to decline for the third consecutive year, with an outcome of about 23.7 million tonnes, about 12 percent lower than the previous five-year average.
The 2024 minor season wheat crop harvest, that accounts for about 5 percent of total production, finalized in January and its outcome is anticipated at near-average levels, as high yields due to conducive soil conditions in the main producing central states more than offset the decline in sowings. Overall wheat production in 2024 is anticipated at a below-average level of 2.67 million tonnes, reflecting the reduction in sowings of the main winter season crop due to severe dryness in northern Sonora Region, the main wheat producer of the country.
The harvest of minor season sorghum crops, accounting for about 45 percent of the annual 2024 production, finalized also in January and production is estimated near the five-year average. Annual 2024 sorghum production, mainly concentrated in Guanajuato, Tamaulipas and Michoacán states, is anticipated near the five-year average, as favourable yields balanced out the slight contraction in plantings.
Planting of 2025 minor maize season forecast below average, due to prolonged drought in Sinaloa
Planting operations for the 2025 minor season maize crop are ongoing and are expected to conclude at the beginning of March. The output is forecast below average, as dry weather conditions across the country, particularly in northern regions (VHI map), deterred farmers’ sowing intentions, resulting in below-average plantings. The planted area in the main producing Sinaloa State is expected to be more than half year-on-year, due to prolonged drought conditions and heatwaves, that caused water scarcity in reservoirs for irrigation, sharply boosting production costs and curtailing crop yields.
Above-average import requirements forecast in 2024/25 marketing year
Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (October/September) are forecast at an above-average level of 29.9 million tonnes, primarily due to growing demand for yellow maize by the domestic feed industry. The limited supply from the drought-stricken production in 2024 also contributed to the higher year-on-year import demand. In 2023/24, according to official estimates, a record-high 19.97 million tonnes of yellow maize were imported, mainly from the United States of America.
Prices of black beans and rice higher than one year earlier
Prices of white maize were mostly stable or declined across markets between October and December 2024, reflecting the arrival on markets of the main season maize harvest. Compared to one year earlier, wholesale prices of maize were lower, reflecting the yearly increase in imports and the lower international prices from the United States of America, the main exporting partner.
In the last quarter of the year, at harvest time, prices of black beans exhibited mixed trends across markets. However, despite a year-on-year increase of imports in 2024, prices were generally higher than the previous year due to a 2023 low production.
Rice prices were nearly stable in Mexico City markets between October and December 2024, in line with adequate market availability from the start of the main summer paddy harvest. Prices were higher than the previous year across the capital city markets. The low 2023 output, combined with a below-average level of imports, contributed to the upward pressure on rice prices.