Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Good early prospects for 2017 autumn/winter cereal crop production despite reduced sowings
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Cereal production in 2016 estimated at record level
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Cereal imports in 2016/17 marketing year unchanged from previous year
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Prices of white maize and black beans followed mixed trends in February, both higher than a year earlier
Favourable prospects for cereal production for 2017 autumn/winter crops despite reduced sowings
Planting of the 2017 autumn/winter wheat and maize crops concluded in February. Weather conditions were favourable during the planting season. Early official estimates point to a decline of 13 percent in the area sown to wheat from the same season last year to about 510 000 hectares below the average. The decline in area sown mainly reflects the bumper 2016 wheat output and low domestic demand. Similarly, reflecting multiple years of bumper white maize crops, the area sown for the 2017 autumn/winter crop has been preliminarily estimated close to 1 million hectares, 8 percent below the same season last year but well above the average. If the rest of the season progresses normally, maize output should remain close to last year’s high level.
Cereal production in 2016 estimated at record level
Total cereal production for 2016 has been estimated at a record 37.6 million tonnes. The higher output mainly reflects larger white maize output due to increased sowings. Wheat production also increased significantly to 3.9 million tonnes in 2016 reflecting both higher yields and area.
Cereal imports in 2016/17 marketing year unchanged from previous year
Cereal imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (October/September) are anticipated to reach 20 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from last year, but well above the average. Higher maize imports for feed, which are expected to cover one-third of the domestic utilization, helped to maintain cereal imports close to last year’s level. Wheat and rice imports are also forecast to increase moderately during the marketing year.
Prices of white maize and black beans followed mixed trends in February, both higher than a year earlier
White maize prices in February declined for the third consecutive month, mainly reflecting ample availabilities from the bumper 2016 crop. However, the continued weakness in the local currency, coupled with seasonal factors, maintained prices above last year’s level. Prices of black beans, by contrast, continued to increase for the fifth consecutive month as high domestic demand pressured prices. Prices were 21 percent above their level from a year earlier, pressured as well by the weak local currency.