Attachments
This is the second report in ACLED's Mexico Special Election Series on the national and local elections held on 2 June that focuses on the central Mexican states of Mexico, Puebla, and Veracruz. It dissects hybrid conflict dynamics in which organized crime interests and territorial disputes intersect with and, at times, likely exacerbate political tensions.
Since the beginning of 2024, reports of violent incidents targeting political figures have frequently made their way into the news in the states of Mexico, Puebla, and Veracruz. On 23 March, several armed men on motorcycles killed the mayoral candidate of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) party running in Acatzingo municipality in Puebla, adding yet another victim to the list of candidates, current and former officials, relatives of politicians, and election officers who have been the targets of violence in recent months. These recent incidents are part of a repeated pattern of violence. Situated in central Mexico, the states of Mexico, Puebla, and Veracruz feature among the eight most affected by violence targeting political figures since 2018.
As in the rest of the country, the violence in these states consists mainly of targeted armed attacks that are often linked to organized crime. At the same time, these states also exhibit elevated levels of riots, property destruction, and other intimidation tactics aimed at disrupting electoral processes, which is indicative of conflict dynamics that likely go beyond the traditional explanation of organized crime. Labor unions' interests, access to water and electricity, and regional political elites' struggles --- often led by local leaders, or caciques --- are common drivers of violence against political figures. For instance, on 10 February, a group of 10 people participated in the killing of Yair Martín Romero, a MORENA candidate running for federal deputy in Ecatepec, Mexico. The prosecutor's office notably linked the attack to a conflict between a transportation workers union led by Martín and USON, a federation of transport and pipe workers unions. USON was apparently trying to force a local group of transport workers from Martín's union to affiliate with the federation.1
Although a significant share of violence targeting political figures responds to these local dynamics, attacks perpetrated by organized crime groups remain a constant feature in Mexican politics, and Puebla, Veracruz, and Mexico are no exceptions. In these states, competition among criminal groups, which is a key driver of violence targeting political figures in states like Guerrero, Michoacán, and Guanajuato, is important but less explosive than in others. In fact, Veracruz, Puebla, and Mexico are the states with the seventh-, eighth-, and 11th-highest number of political violence events likely involving criminal groups (see maps below).