ACAPS Briefing Note: Mexico - Dengue Fever (16 September 2019)

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Since the beginning of 2019, a regional epidemic cycle of dengue has broken out in Latin American and the Caribbean. According to the government, as of 2 September, Mexico has 11,593 confirmed cases of dengue, including 798 cases of severe dengue. However, the total number of probable cases is expected to be much higher by the end of 2019. 70% of the cases are primarily within five of Mexico’s provinces: Chiapas, Jalisco, Veracruz, Oaxaca, and Quintana Roo (GoM 02/09/2019) Veracruz de Ignacio de la Llave (Veracruz) a state with a population of over 8.1 million, has the highest total number of dengue (3,234) (GoM 02/09/2019 GoV 2017). As of 31 August, Veracruz has 3,234 confirmed cases of dengue, including 82 cases of severe dengue, and 2 confirmed deaths (GoM 02/09/2019). This number is already higher than the figure for the entirety of 2018 for Veracruz, which had 2,239 cases of dengue and 95 cases of severe dengue (GoM 12/2018). Given that the rainy season is expected to continue until October, this number could continue to increase.

Anticipated scope and scale

The Government of Mexico predicts there will be 74,200 probable cases of dengue by the end of 2019. In 2018 there were roughly 25,000. 16 states in Mexico have confirmed cases dengue so far, of which the state of Veracruz currently has the highest number. Vulnerable populations include those in poverty, who account for 58% of the state’s population. Children under 14 are also highly susceptible to the current outbreak; they account for almost a quarter of the population in Veracruz. The ongoing rainy season, which last year resulted in widespread flooding across 21 municipalities within Veracruz, could heighten the number of dengue cases.