Mauritius + 1 more

Tropical cyclone 10S (Dina) warning Nr 012

WTXS31 PGTW 230900

IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 012

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

230600Z1 --- NEAR 21.1S4 53.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S4 53.8E6

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 22.2S6 52.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 23.4S9 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 24.5S1 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 25.6S3 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

REMARKS:

230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 53.5E3.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 230530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. A 36 NM EYE DIAMETER IS NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 10S (DINA) WILL BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED SOUTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 AND 240900Z5.//