During the harvest and post-harvest period through January, FEWS NET estimates that between 100,000 and 250,000 people will need humanitarian food aid. This figure will increase toward the upper limit of the range during the hot, dry season from February to May. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected among poor farming and agropastoral households in the south-central and southwestern regions. Hodh El Chargui is the area of greatest concern due to the pressure from Malian refugees and their livestock on natural resources, the local economy, and basic social infrastructure. Hodh El Chargui was classified as being in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the lean season but is expected to shift to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to the availability of harvests and livestock products, as well as improved water supply and pastures. However, some populations will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Some poor and very poor households in Nouakchott peri-urban areas will also face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomesbetween October and May. These households, struggling with limited employment and income opportunities, are faced with high prices and are unable to cover non-food expenses without employing Crisis coping strategies.
Between October 2024 and January 2025, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in agricultural and agropastoral areas, as most households are expected to have access to food and income from their own production, livestock, and typical food and income sources.
Between February and May 2025, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across agricultural and agropastoral areas due to the typical depletion of food reserves. Most farming households, which will need to rely on markets for food, will face above-average prices.
