With nationwide cereal production expected to surpass the five-year average by 25 percent, and adequate domestic and cross-border trade flows, food availability should be average to above-average through the end of June.
Good pastoral conditions, higher levels of seasonal income, food resources earned from farming activities, and favorable terms of trade will keep most poor households in IPC Phase 1: Minimal food insecurity between January and March.
Poor agro-dominant agropastoral households in northwestern agropastoral areas and southeastern rainfed agriculture zones will move into IPC Phase 2: Stress between March/April and June, along with northern households impacted by the protracted drought in that area since last year.
The resumption of fighting in northern Mali has triggered a new wave of refugees and has, to some extent, slowed trade in affected border areas. Monitoring market and cross-border trade disruptions will be important in determining the impact of security threats on pastoral systems, particularly in southeastern rainfed farming areas.