SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS
The first dekad of September was quite rainy in the transhumant pastoral area of Trarza (zone 4) and the western reaches of the agropastoral zone (zone 5) and Senegal River Valley (7), which caused flooding and left some 2,200 households in Trarza homeless. However, conditions are relatively dry throughout the entire rainfed farming zone stretching from Guidimakha to Hodh El Chargui (zone 6). Soil water satisfaction indexes are still relatively good in most rainfed farming areas, with the exception of Guidimakha and Assaba. Early millet and sorghum crops are in the heading and seed formation stage, while irrigated crops are in the transplanting stage.
The size of the area planted in crops has increased from last year in all areas serviced by seed distribution programs mounted by the FAO, OXFAM and the French Cooperation Agency, but there are still large areas lying fallow due to shortages of seeds and labor. Water levels in all lowland and dam areas are sufficient to ensure that flood recession crops develop normally but, as in the case of diéri or rainfed highland crops, local farmers are having problems procuring necessary seeds. Floodwaters from the river are beginning to reach walo or flood recession crops planted along the banks of the Senegal River, but farmers are still skeptical, concerned that the required submersion period (at least 8 dekads) cannot be achieved before the floodwaters recede (in October - November). The locust situation is quiet, but there is extremely heavy pressure from grain-eating birds, and this year's hatchings could coincide with the maturation of current crops. Conditions are good in all livestock-raising areas, with grazing lands covered with thick vegetative growth, plentiful surface water supplies and no reports of any epizootic diseases. Food insecurity levels are falling in all parts of the country, but residents of adwaba settlements in Hodh El Chargui, Aftout and Tagant, farmers in the Senegal River Valley and residents of peri-urban areas are still experiencing food access problems. The SAVS (village-level food security reserve programs) in most of these areas are reporting operating problems as their beginning inventories are depleted and local communities are unable to replenish their food stores. The government-mandated cut in prices for staple foodstuffs is improving household purchasing power. The cholera epidemic is still spreading in slum areas of Nouakchott and in the southern part of the country.
LIVELIHOOD ZONES
CURRENT HAZARD SUMMARY
Rainfall conditions over the past three dekads have considerably improved grazing conditions in the transhumant pastoral zone (zone 4). However, food access is slow to improve due to fallout from the large debts incurred by area pastoralists, many of whom were forced to borrow large sums of money or large amounts of animal feed over between April and June of this year. These debts need to be paid back. All household survival strategies are focused on resolving this problem. The solution is essential to the household's solvency and future borrowing capacity. This explains the drive to increase sales of milk and small stock animals in this area and the subsequent drop in prices for these products.
Sporadic rainfall over the past two dekads in rainfed farming areas (zone 6) and the eastern reaches of the country's agropastoral zone (zone 5) is beginning to affect rainfed crops, which are the sole source (in zone 6) or main source (in zone 5) of household grain production. The loss of these crops will only serve to prolong the lean period.
Despite high water levels in lowland and dam areas, farming activities in these areas will be curtailed by the inability of local farmers to procure necessary seeds for planting flood recession crops. The low flood level of the Senegal River is a major handicap for residents of zone 7 and the southwestern reaches of zone 5, whose main source of crop production are walo or flood recession crops, planted along the riverbanks. Farmers in Aftout and the southeastern part of the country (in the eastern reaches of zones 5 and 6) and fishing communities in the Senegal River Valley (zone 7) are still experiencing serious food access problems.
Most of the SAVS (village-level food security reserves) in these areas are already depleted, and there is so much poverty that, even with the price cuts mandated by the new government, local residents still do not have regular access to grain crops available on area markets. The 2,200 households forced from their homes by flooding in Trarza have already received emergency aid but will need ongoing relief programs until able to return to their homes, once the floodwaters recede (in November December at the earliest).
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