Attachments
Highlights
- By the end of June, the early stages of the rainfall season, so far, in West Africa, the 2024 rainy season has been characterised by variable conditions. While deficits affected areas over western Sahel (Senegal, Gambia, southern Mauritania, western Mali), central western Niger, eastern Sahel (Southern &western Sahel Chad), as well as coastal countries (Guinea Bissau, western Guinea, Sierra Leone, southeastern Liberia, central western Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, northern Cameroon) and CAR, in the rest of the region, normal conditions prevailed with some pockets of above normal conditions (in central southern Niger, south-eastern Burkina Faso, south-western Mali, north-eastern Guinea and northern sahelian belt Chad).
- The rainfall deficits observed at the beginning of the season, have negatively impacted the dynamics and growth of the vegetation. This led to a tendency for delays in the start of the agricultural season across the region and below average vegetation cover. The vegetation deficits extended over a wide area in the Sahel from Senegal-western Mali across Burkina Faso and northern Nigeria to southern Chad. Water points across the Sahel are generally dry or near dry by end of June. Only over central southern Niger, northern Nigeria and central southeastern Burkina Faso conditions are favourable.
- As erratic rainfall at the start of the season could negatively impact agricultural (sowing) and livestock activities, the progression of the rains, and particularly their spatial and temporal distribution should be monitored closely. It should be noted that these deficits are having a negative impact on livestock activities particularly over the Sahel, as it will further prolong the pastoral lean season for many areas affected by biomass deficits in 2023.
- The short-term forecasts indicate that by mid-July (20 July 2024), seasonal rainfall improvement will likely be observed across West Africa Region, in particular over the Sahel with widespread wetter conditions. If the forecasts are verified, we might see an alleviation of the rainfall deficits in these regions and the onset of more favorable conditions for the early stages of the growing season. However, areas over southern and south-western Senegal, Gambia, eastern Guinea Bissau, as well as eastern Liberia, south-western cote d’ivoire, southern coastal and central western Ghana and southern Cameroon could remain drier than average.
- According to the 2024 PRESASS seasonal forecast, is expected above average to average seasonal rainfall from May to September 2024 across the region while below average conditions is expected over Sierra Leone, Liberia, far south-east of Nigeria and the coastal part of Cameroon. Seasonal rains onset will likely be average to early in the western and eastern Sahel and late to average in the Central Sahel. Cessation dates are expected to be late to average. Short dry spells are expected at the beginning of the season in the western Sahel and long towards the end of the season across the Sahelian region.