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West Africa Seasonal Monitor 2022 Season - Dekadal Update: August 2022, Dekad 2 (11-20 August)

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Key Highlights

• During the second dekad of August (11-20 August), heavy rainfall (over 90 mm) was recorded over the Sahel in Burkina Faso, western Niger, southern Chad, northern Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone, eastern Liberia, as well as northern Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and eastern CAR. Flooding was reported in many urban areas across Western Africa. Meanwhile, little to light seasonal rainfall was received in central Senegal, eastern Liberia, southern Cote d’Ivoire and southern Ghana.

• Compared to the long-term average, seasonal rainfall was below average over central, southern and western Senegal, Gambia, eastern Mauritania, western Mali, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, far eastern Guinea, north-eastern Sierra Leone, western Cote d’Ivoire, coastal areas in the Gulf of Guinea, central Nigeria, southern Cameroon and western CAR. However western Mauritania, northern Senegal, southern Ghana, Burkina Faso, Niger, northern Nigeria, southern Chad, the Lac Chad Basin (LCB), and eastern CAR experienced above average seasonal rainfall during this dekad.

• Seasonal rains over the past month, reflect a trend observed over the past two months, with the persistence of drier than normal conditions in the western parts of the region (except western and northern Senegal, western Mauritania, Burkina Faso and western Niger), while wetter than normal conditions prevailed over the eastern parts (LCB, half northern Cameroon, Chad and eastern CAR).

• The short-range forecast until 10 September 2022 suggests that most of the region will likely receive above average rainfall, which may worsen current floods and increase the risk of flooding in additional areas. The southern coastal areas of countries the Mano River region and the Gulf of Guinea will likely be well below average.

• According to the PRESASS seasonal forecast updated in May 2022, average to above average seasonal rainfall is expected in most of the Sahelian Belt (from Senegal through to Chad), including Cabo Verde. Average to below average rainfall is expected in south-eastern Nigeria and south-western Cameroon. The seasonal forecast also suggests that the start of the season will be early to normal, with shorter than normal dry spells during the first half of the rainy season across the Sahelo-Sudanian zone.