Key Highlights
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According to the PRESASS seasonal forecast updated in May 2022, average to above average seasonal rainfall is expected in most of the Sahelian Belt (from Senegal through to Chad), including Cabo Verde. Average to below average rainfall is expected in south-eastern Nigeria and south-western Cameroon. The seasonal forecast also suggests that the start of the season will be early to normal, with shorter than normal dry spells during the first half of the rainy season across the SaheloSudanian zone.
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According to the short-range forecast up to 31 August 2022, favourable rainfall conditions are expected over the most of West Africa region except the southern coastal areas over Mano river and Gulf of Guinea (in Guinea, eastern Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Benin, Togo and Nigeria) as well as southern Cameroon and southern CAR. This may cause concern for the southern coastal countries of the region, which have so far experienced unfavourable rainfall conditions.
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During the first dekad of August (1-10 August), in West Africa was recorded heavy rains in the far western coastal areas (south-western Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Guinea and Sierra Leone), in central Sahel (central Burkina Faso) and the far eastern part of the region (in southern Chad, most of Cameroon, and north-western CAR). Elsewhere was received moderate to little seasonal rainfall in central and northern Senegal, Mali, Niger, northern Nigeria and Chad sahelian Belt. Meanwhile light rains were received over the Gulf of Guinea (southern Cote d’ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and south-western Nigeria) as well south-eastern Liberia and southeastern Cameroon.
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Compared to the regional long-term average, the seasonal rainfall during this first dekad of the month of August was mostly below normal. Some areas over the region remained abnormally dry particularly western Mali, Mano River’s and Gulf of Guinea’s countries (Sierra Leone, Cote d’ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria), southern Mauritania and the half eastern Niger. However, areas such as central Burkina Faso, most of Chad (including the Sahelian belt), most of Cameroon, northwestern CAR, south-western Senegal, Guinea Bissau, western Guinea and eastern Mali experienced above normal rainfall.
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Over the past month, in West Africa seasonal rainfall conditions were mixed. The eastern part of region (Eastern Niger, NE Nigeria, most of Cameroon, Chad), Central Burkina Faso, south-western Niger, the westernmost areas of the region (Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau) benefited from normal to above normal conditions. However abnormal dryness was recorded over the Mano River’s and Gulf Guinea’s countries (Sierra, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria, as well as far western and pockets in central southern Mali and western Niger. Rainfall patterns: 1-10 August