SECTION 1: DEKADAL TRENDS 3
SECTION 2: MONTHLY TRENDS 8
SECTION 3:THE SEASON SO FAR 12
SECTION 4: THE SHORT- AND MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK 15
SECTION 5: THE PLATFORM FOR REAL-TIME IMPACT AND SITUATION MONITORING (PRISM)
As of late of July, the early stage of the core period of the rainy season, overall in July, West Africa continue to be characterized by below average seasonal rainfall and deficits mainly affected far northern Senegal, southern Mauritania, western Mali, eastern Guinea, western Niger as well as Gulf of Guinea and Mono River (from Sierra Leone to Nigeria) while the western parts of the Sahel (Senegal, The Gambia) and central Burkina Faso and the eastern parts of the region (Chad, Cameroon and CAR) experienced above normal rainfall conditions. Seasonal rains during this first dekad of the month of July were mixed while the second dekad remained well below average. Favourable conditions during last dekad of July offset some of the early season deficits in areas over westernmost part of the region (Senegal, Mauritania, Gambia), while abnormal dryness persist in central southern Mali and western Niger as well Gulf of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and eastern Guinea.
The rainy season so far (over the past tree (3) months (May-July 2022)), was characterised by mixed conditions. Over the western Sahel (Senegal, The Gambia,), the central Sahel (central Burkina Faso) and the eastern part of the region (eastern Niger, Chad, Cameroon and CAR) above normal rainfall was received. Central western and south coastal Nigeria, far northern Senegal, southern Mauritania, eastern Guinea, Sierra and Liberia experienced below average rainfall. Erratic seasonal rainfall since early May has resulted in abnormal dryness over central southern Mali, western Niger, central Nigeria. Lack of rains during July resulting below average rainfall over northern Senegal and southern Mauritania. These deficits may have major impacts on agricultural activities, given that planting normally occurs during the month of July. Meanwhile heavy rains have caused flooding, leading to fatalities, damaged infrastructures, and people affected over areas in Gambia, Senegal, Mali, Chad and Nigeria. Further south, drier than normal conditions were also observed in Sierra Leone, Liberia and western Cote d'Ivoire.
Vegetation conditions are below average over a wide area in the Sahel from western Mali across Burkina Faso to northern Nigeria as well as northern Senegal. Vegetation deficits are particularly pronounced in western Niger, northern Senegal, Nigeria and eastern Burkina Faso). In some areas, these conditions are expected to improve due to more favourable expected rainfall conditions in the coming weeks. On the other hand, better than normal vegetation conditions can be observed in southern Senegal, south-eastern Mauritania, central Mali, north-western Nigeria, extreme north Cameroon and the Sahelian belt of Chad.
The short-term forecasts indicate that by mid-August (20 August 2022), seasonal rainfall will likely be mostly above average for the West Africa region, except southern coastal areas (southern Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin Cameroon, Sierra Leone), as well as CAR, western Senegal and northwestern Mauritania with below average seasonal rainfall. Drought will likely be most pronounced in southern coastal Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, south-eastern Liberia and southern Cameroon. This might partially offset the rainfall deficits in parts of the Sahel (northern Senegal, southern Mauritania, western Mali, western Niger) and the lead to more favorable conditions during the early stages of the growing season. However, for the countries of the Gulf of Guinea this deserves close monitoring.
According to the 2022 PRESASS seasonal forecast, average to above average seasonal rainfall is expected in most of the Sahelian Belt (from Senegal through to Chad), including Cabo Verde. Average to below average rainfall is expected in south-eastern Nigeria and south-western Cameroon. The seasonal forecast also suggests that the start of the season will be early to normal, with shorter than normal dry spells during the first half of the rainy season across the Sahelo-Sudanian zone.