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West Africa Seasonal Monitor (2021 Season) - May 20 – 31 2021

Situation Report
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• Late May, Gulf of Guinea continued to experience little seasonal rainfall while in southern areas of the region over Sierra Leone, Liberia, South-eastern Guinea, Southern Cameroon and Western CAR, was received the highest rainfall in the region. The deficits were particularly noticeable in Gulf of Guinea, most of Nigeria, eastern Sahel, eastern CAR and the western areas of the region. Meanwhile, the rest of the region benefited from wetter conditions than the average and the increase in rainfall relieved some dryness.

• So far, in a one-month rainfall (for May 2021), most of West Africa continues to be characterized by drier than average conditions. The seasonal rainfall deficits extend across a wide region from eastern Liberia – Côte d’Ivoire across Gulf of Guinea countries, Nigeria, Southern Niger, and Southern Chad. This dryness also prevail over western areas of West Africa and in other pockets over eastern CAR. Vegetation condition is still affected by the early poor rainfall distribution leading lower-than-average conditions across a broad area from southeastern Senegal – Northern Guinea across Northern Gulf of guinea countries, southern Burkina Faso, Central Nigeria continuing into Central and far south-western Chad.

• According to short-term forecasts, in mid - June, rainfall improvement will likely be observed across the region. If the forecasts are verified, we might see rainfall improvement across western Sahel, in particular over Senegal, Mali and most of Burkina, as well as in Nigeria and across Gulf of Guinea countries seasonal rainfall deficits will be offset. However, in eastern Sahel condition will likely remain below average over Niger and Chad.

• According to the PRESASS 2021 seasonal forecast, average to above average rainfall is expected over the Sahelian and Sudanian belt for June - August and July - September while below average cumulative rainfall for the entire season will likely be observed over coastal areas of Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, northern Sierra Leone, eastern Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, and Cameroon. These conditions are associated with an early to normal onset of rains and long to medium dry spells over most of the Sahel.