Update of Seasonal Outlooks at One-Month Lead:
July-September 2005 Forecasts
Gulf of Guinea Region
Climatology is expected across the entire domain.
There is a low to moderate tilt in the odds favoring above normal rainfall over northern and central Mali, and locally over north central Niger. There is a slight tilt in the odds favoring below normal rainfall locally over western Mali.
Northern Horn of Africa
There is a slight tilt in the odds favoring above normal rainfall over portions of southern and central Ethiopia and southwestern Sudan. There is a slight tilt in the odds favoring below normal rainfall over extreme eastern Ethiopia, central and northern Somalia, and portions of northern Eritrea.
Weather Hazards Assessment Graphic:
valid: june 23 - 29, 2005
Weather Hazards Text Explanation:
1. Degraded pasture and reduced water available for crops in portions of Kenya, southern Somalia, and northeastern Tanzania is the result of lighter than normal seasonal rains. Deficits in parts of Kenya now exceed 300 mm, meanwhile the rest of the region is experiencing deficits from 50 mm to 250 mm. In certain areas this below normal precipitation is adding onto moisture deficits from previous years. Little to no rain has fallen in June, and these conditions are expected to continue through the coming week. Most rain in June falls along the coast.
2. Steady rainfall during the past few months have raised Lake Victoria’s levels to 0.59 meters below normal, as of June 2nd. This is a significant improvement over the almost 0.75 meters below normal that the lake was at earlier this year. The lowered lake levels have reduced Uganda’s ability to produce hydroelectricity. During the past week up to and exceeding 30 mm of rain fell on the lake, further improving conditions. The coming week will likely be drier.
3. Western and central portions of Gabon have been much drier than normal. Negative anomalies of up to 400 mm could have significant implications for pastures. The worst conditions are closer to the coast where less than 25% of normal rainfall has fallen since March. Farther inland conditions are better and deficits range from 100 mm to 300 mm. It is not likely that significant improvement will come to Gabon until the rains return in late September or early October.
4. Below normal rainfall totals across southern and eastern Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, portions of Mozambique and extreme northeastern South Africa have left the area with degraded pastures and reduced water resources. Deficits of 200 mm to 500 mm or 30% to 60% will likely not see improvement until the rains return in December. The driest areas are Gaza and Inhamambane provinces in Mozambique and Manicaland and Masvingo provinces in Zimbabwe where deficits exceed 600 mm.
AUTHOR: Eric J Wolvovsky and Linda Phalatse
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Alvin.Miller@noaa.gov or 1-301-763-8000 x7552
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity whose purpose is to provide objective information about food security conditions. Its views are not necessarily reflective of those of USAID. The FEWS NET weather hazards assessment process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned.