Monitoring bulletin for the agro-pastoral campagne in West Africa : Special Bulletin n° 04 - July 2017
Seasonal forecast of the agro-hydro-climatic characteristics of the 2017 rainy season for the Sahelo-Soudanian countries of CILSS/ECOWAS region
Following the update of the agro-hydro-climatic forecasts made in July 2017, the perspectives for the cumulative rainfall, ending dates of the season and river basins flows for the 2017 season remain broadly unchanged from the conclusions of the Seasonal Forecast Forum held in May 2017 in Accra, Ghana. As for the onset dates of the season and the durations of the longest dry spells during the crop installation phase, they were generally confirmed by the field observations and the analyses at the regional level
** I. State and perspectives of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST)**
For the periods of July-August-September and September-October-November 2017, the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecast over the Equatorial Pacific shows warm but neutral conditions (between 0 ° C and 0.5 ° C) compared to the mean average of the period 1981-2010.
The warming of the Indian Ocean is expected to persist for the next few months.
The Tropical Atlantic will maintain the slightly above average temperatures during the periods mentioned above. On the Gulf of Guinea a neutral SST will persist; which could create a favourable gradient for the penetration of monsoon winds and convective phenomena in the Sahelo-Sudanian zone.