Average household access to food due to overall good ongoing harvests
The overall 34 percent increase in cereal production of over last average (CPS/SDR) despite localized pockets of production defecits due to floods and civil insecurity bodes well for average to above-average cereal availability in the 2018-19 consumption year. The availability of ongoing harvests allows households to access food; this puts most households in the country in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.
Household access to food is average in this period of availability of own production, in addition to income from payments in kind and to the seasonal decline in prices to average or slightly above average levels, and the improvement in the terms of trade for livestock/cereals becoming close to average.
Overall, pastoral conditions are good across the country, which point to average to good prospects for livestock feeding, despite some pockets of localized deficits particularly in the Mopti region. The resulting average to above-average body conditions and livestock production levels will improve the quality of food and the incomes for pastoralists.
Poor households affected by floods during the 2018 rainy season, particularly in the regions of Segou, Sikasso and Mopti and those displaced from the north and center of the country due to conflict, are experiencing a deterioration in their livelihoods that negatively affects their ability to meet both their food and non-food needs. As a result, they will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as early as January, after the harvest.