Attachments
Key Messages
- The persistence of security incidents will continue to disrupt the livelihoods of households, particularly in the central and northern parts of the country. Ménaka remains the highest-priority area, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to deteriorate into Emergency (IPC Phase 4) starting in April, with a continued proportion of households in inaccessible areas facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).
- Although the number of people in need of food aid will decrease during the post-harvest period, the need for humanitarian food assistance will remain high in the country, particularly for populations in conflict zones, IDPs, and those in inaccessible areas of Ménaka. Needs will begin to increase seasonally at the start of 2025, continuing until the end of the projection period, when between 500,000 and 750,000 people will require humanitarian food assistance in May 2025.
- Overall, average to below-average cereal production will result in a moderate availability of cereals in the country starting in October. However, the overall decline in production in the farming areas due to floods and field abandonment linked to insecurity will lead to early depletion of household stocks and an unusual decline in cereal availability in markets after the post-harvest period.
- Although harvests are low in some areas, households' access to food and income will seasonally improve in October due to ongoing harvests and the decrease in cereal prices. In conflict-affected areas in the center and north, access to food remains below normal due to significantly higher prices and the deterioration of the livestock-to-cereals terms of trade.
The analysis presented here is based on information available as of October 15, 2024.