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In Mali, severe droughts and floods are becoming increasingly prominent, with average temperatures increasing. The climatic changes are leading to loss of livelihoods which exacerbate already poor socio-economic conditions. Simultaneously, tensions have been ongoing since Mali’s independence from colonialist powers in the 1960’s reaching new heights in 2012 with the Tuareg rebellion, which escalated into armed conflict. This has reduced the resilience and adaptive capacities of individuals, communities, and the state to respond to climate-related risks, while climate change and extreme weather events have exacerbated vulnerabilities, heightening conflict risks. Human mobility is a common form of adaptation to climate change, as well as violence and armed conflict. The impact of climate change on natural resources and livelihoods compels people to migrate or engage in transhumance livelihoods to sustain themselves, while more immediate climatic hazards such as natural disasters cause immediate displacements, impacting the overall human security situation. Similarly, conflict, especially in the Sahel region, has triggered widespread displacement.
The aim of this factsheet is to identify some of the ways in which these components, namely, climate change, human security risks, conflict and human mobility interact within the context of Mali. In order to improve understanding of the ways in which these components interlink, it is helpful to delve deeper into the different pathways for how these dynamics play out in different contexts. Thus, the climate security mobility pathways explore the ways in which climate related risks interlink with and potentially exacerbate social tensions and conflict, as well as how conflict interact with climatic changes to alter the security landscape in Mali and the consequential changes to human mobility patterns. Although the situation in Mali is rapidly evolving, the identified pathways remain relevant in establishing a foundational understanding of Mali’s complex climate security landscape. Four main pathways have been identified for how these dynamics shape the local peace and security landscape in Mali.