Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Dire food security situation in Ménaka Region due to conflict
- Planting operations of 2025 cereal crops ongoing
- Cereal production in 2024 estimated at above-average level
- Prices of cereals near or above year-earlier levels
Dire food security situation in Ménaka Region due to conflict
According to the latest Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 1.52 million people (7 percent of the analyzed population) are projected to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2025 lean season period, including over 64 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency) and about 2 600 people in CH Phase 5 (Catastrophe). This marks a deterioration compared to the same period in 2024, when about 1.37 million people (6 percent of the analyzed population) were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance.
Conflict remains the primary driver of acute food insecurity, particularly in central and northern regions, where it has severely disrupted livelihoods and markets, and has triggered large-scale population displacements. In September 2024, about 378 000 people were estimated to be internally displaced. Violence by non-state armed groups also continues to impede the delivery of humanitarian assistance. Humanitarian needs are particularly high in Ménaka Region, where CH Phase 5 (Catastrophe) levels of acute food insecurity are projected for the upcoming lean season.
As of April 2025, the number of refugees is estimated at 136 000 people, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 50 percent. Most refugees are from Burkina Faso and the Niger.
Planting of 2025 cereal crops underway
In southern areas, sowing of 2025 cereal crops, including maize, millet, sorghum and rice, is underway. The timely onset of the rainy season in mid-April and average to above-average precipitation amounts until mid-May supported planting operations and the establishment of early-planted crops. In central and northern regions, where seasonal rains are expected to start in June, land preparation is ongoing and planting is about to start.
Conflict is expected to continue to affect agricultural activities in central and northern areas in 2025, likely leading to localized production shortfalls.
According to the latest weather forecast by the Forum on Seasonal Forecasts of Agro-hydro-climatic Characteristics of the Rainy Season for the Sudanian and Sahelian Zones of West Africa and the Sahel (PRESASS), average to above-average rainfall amounts are expected between June and September 2025, likely benefitting crop development, but also heightening the risk of flooding.
Cereal production in 2024 estimated at above-average level
The 2024 aggregate cereal production is officially estimated at 10.4 million tonnes, about 5 percent above the average of the previous five years, reflecting generally favourable weather conditions. However, flooding caused crop losses in several areas, with the rice crop particularly affected. In addition, in northern and central regions, civil insecurity continued to disrupt agricultural activities, resulting in localized production shortfalls. Across the country, pest outbreaks and farmers’ limited access to agricultural inputs affected yields.
Prices of cereals near or above year-earlier levels
Wholesale prices of locally produced sorghum and rice remained stable or increased between January and April 2025. In markets where price increases were recorded, prices of sorghum rose by up to 10 percent, while prices of rice increased by up to 20 percent. In April 2025, prices of sorghum were generally near their year-earlier levels, while prices of rice were up to 20 percent higher on a yearly basis.
Wholesale prices of local millet followed mixed trends between January and April 2025, when they were between 15 and 30 percent above their year-earlier values across the country.
The high prices of cereals mainly reflect shortfalls of the 2024 production in several regions and conflict-related market disruptions. Furthermore, elevated production and transport costs exerted upward pressure on prices.