Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Cereal production in 2024 forecast at slightly below-average level
- Prices of local rice at record levels
- Widespread flooding exacerbates acute food insecurity
Cereal production in 2024 forecast at slightly below‑average level
Harvesting operations of the 2024 cereal crops are underway, with the gathering of the coarse grain crops concluding by the end of the year, while harvesting of the main season rice crop is expected to finalize in February 2025. The rainy season, which normally extends from May to October, generally had a late and unfavourable start. Below-average rainfall amounts between May and June constrained planting operations and affected crop establishment in parts of southern producing areas, with a negative impact on yields. Heavy rains between July and October disrupted agricultural activities and triggered widespread flooding, resulting in crop losses in several areas, especially in parts of the regions of Ségou, Mopti and Koulikoro, with the main season rice crop being particularly affected. Furthermore, conflict continued to undermine farmers’ productive capacity in central and northern regions as well as in northern parts of the regions of Ségou, San and Koulikoro. Across the country, pest attacks and farmers’ limited access to agricultural inputs had a negative impact on yields.
The 2024 aggregate cereal production is forecast at 9.6 million tonnes, about 3 percent below the average of the previous five years.
Prices of local rice at record levels
Wholesale prices of locally produced rice increased sharply between January and October 2024, rising by 25 to 55 percent in most markets. In October 2024, prices of local rice reached record highs, and they were up to 25 percent higher on a yearly basis. Similar year-on-year price increases were registered for imported rice, which rose by up to 20 percent between January and October 2024.
Wholesale prices of locally produced sorghum increased by 40 to 55 percent between January and August 2024 in most markets, while prices of local millet rose by 50 to 75 percent during the same period. Prices of both sorghum and millet followed mixed trends in September and October 2024, when they were between 40 and 80 percent above their year‑earlier levels.
The high domestic prices of cereals mainly reflect market disruptions due to conflict and damage to road infrastructure caused by heavy rainfall. Furthermore, concerns about the performance of the 2024 cropping season, particularly the main season rice crop, along with strong local demand, exerted upward pressure on prices.
Widespread flooding exacerbates acute food insecurity
According to the March 2024 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 1.37 million people were estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2024 lean season period, including nearly 121 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency) and about 2 600 people in CH Phase 5 (Catastrophe). This represents a slight deterioration compared to the same period in 2023, when about 1.26 million people were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance.
Acute food insecurity is mainly driven by the ongoing conflict, which has escalated after the full withdrawal of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in December 2023, with violence spreading to southern and western parts of the country. Northern and central regions remain the most affected, where civil insecurity has severely disrupted livelihoods and markets, and triggered large‑scale population displacement. In July 2024, about 331 000 people were estimated to be internally displaced. There is high concern for the food security situation of households located in areas besieged by non-state armed groups, where humanitarian access remains severely constrained. In Ménaka Region, CH Phase 5 (Catastrophe) levels of acute food insecurity were projected for the 2024 lean season.
Persisting macroeconomic challenges, including elevated inflation and increasing unemployment due to the energy supply crisis, has affected the country since 2022 and continues to cause frequent power cuts, severely constraining economic activities.
Concerns also exist for the food security situation of about 370 000 people that were affected by recent floods, whose livelihoods have been significantly disrupted, prompting the government to declare a state of national disaster on 23 August 2024.
New CH estimates of the number of people facing acute food insecurity in the last quarter of 2024 are expected to be released by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) in December 2024.