Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET July 4 – July 10, 2013

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 03 Jul 2013
  • Moderate to heavy rains began to push north into the Sahel in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali

  • Seasonal rainfall deficits continue across northwestern Ethiopia and bordering regions in Sudan.

1) During much of May and the beginning of June, intermittent and insufficient rains had increased rainfall deficits over parts of north central Nigeria. However, recent moderate to heavy rains have decreased seasonal rainfall deficits. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast over the region during the next outlook period and, though, they may not be sufficient to fully overcome accumulated deficits, rains should be enough to satisfy cropping requirements.

2) Below-average rain during the beginning of the season had delayed planting over parts of western Mali. However, an increase in rain has led to a recovery. Additional rain is expected during the next week. And, though, the forecast amounts may not compensate for the seasonal deficits, rains should be enough to satisfy cropping requirements.

3) A migratory locust outbreak in October-November was accelerated with the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Haruna in February, which provided favorable conditions for locust breeding throughout western Madagascar. This large-scale outbreak should subside with cooler weather in June-August.

4) Heavy rains during the past month have led to rainfall surpluses greater than 150mm. With torrential rains forecast for the next week, there is an increased chance for localized flooding across parts of Guinea and Sierra Leone.