Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET July 11 – July 17, 2013

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 10 Jul 2013
  • Moderate to heavy rains continue to push north across the Sahel.
  • Moderate seasonal rainfall deficits grow across northwestern Ethiopia, southern Eritrea and bordering Sudan.

1) During much of May and the beginning of June, intermittent and insufficient rains had increased rainfall deficits over parts of northeastern Nigeria, resulting in poor NDVI values and delayed planting. However, recent moderate to heavy rains have decreased seasonal rainfall deficits. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast over the region during the next outlook period and, though, they may not be sufficient to fully overcome accumulated deficits, rains should be enough to satisfy cropping requirements.

2) A migratory locust outbreak in October-November was accelerated with the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Haruna in February, which provided favorable conditions for locust breeding throughout western Madagascar. This large-scale outbreak should subside with cooler weather in June-August.

3) Heavy rains during the past month have led to rainfall surpluses greater than 150mm in Guinea and Sierra Leone. With torrential rains forecast for the next week, there is an increased chance for localized flooding across parts of Guinea and Sierra Leone.

4) A poor start of season across northwest Ethiopia, southern Eritrea and bordering areas in Sudan has begun to negatively impact cropping activities, including delaying planting. For the next week, below-average rains are expected to continue, further increasing seasonal rainfall deficits.