Attachments
Highlights
Review of the recent season
• Severe drought has affected the region, driven by back-to-back climate shocks. The lingering effects of the 2023/24 El Niño event led to the worst mid-season dry spell in >100 years and the lowest mid-season rainfall in >40 years, with significant damaging impacts on agriculture, food insecurity and subsequently on malnutrition.
• Infectious disease outbreaks, e.g. cholera in Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi and measles in Zambia and Namibia, are exacerbated by drought-related water scarcity, malnutrition and displacement.
• There are >700K internally displaced people region-wide, and significant conflict ongoing in Cabo Delgado.
Forecasts for December 2024 – Feb 2025
• This Southwest Indian Ocean Cyclone Season is forecasted to be slightly above average, with northern Madagascar,
Mozambique and nearby small islands (e.g. Comoros and Mauritius) at an increased risk.
• Rainfall is likely to be average for most of the region this DJF, with slightly above average rainfall in parts of South Africa and Northern Mozambique, Malawi, Northern Madagascar and slightly below average rainfall in Namibia.
• Above average temperatures are highly likely for the entire region, increasing the risk of heatwaves over DJF.
• As the lean season begins for most of the region in November, IPC3+ (crisis) levels of food insecurity is projected to remain for over 20 million people across the region. The situation may even worsen in some parts of Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique and southern Malawi, lasting until the harvest comes in March/April.