Attachments
HIGHLIGHTS
• In the early stages (October-November) of the 2014-2015 growing season in Southern Africa significant rainfall deficits and delayed starts to the season were noted in the border areas of Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The crop growing regions of eastern South Africa and Madagascar were also affected. In contrast, Tanzania, Namibia, Angola and Botswana enjoyed a good start of the season.
• From mid December to mid January, continuous heavy rainfall led to flooding along the Shire river in Malawi and the lower Zambezi in Mozambique, affecting up to 800,000 people.
• Meanwhile, drier than average conditions continued to affect parts of eastern South Africa and extended into Botswana, most of Namibia and southern Angola, reversing previous favourable early season conditions. Southern Mozambique and southern Zimbabwe were also affected.
• A combination of the delayed onset of the season and a poor mid season rainfall pattern at critical stages of maize development, led to unfavourable expectations for regional maize production.
• South Africa’s first maize production forecast estimates the 2015 harvest to be the worst in 8 years, with a drop of 21% relative to the average of the last 5 years and 32% down on last year’s bumper crop. Wider regional impacts still need to be defined, but the production perspectives are not favourable for Namibia, Botswana, southern Mozambique and Zimbabwe.
• Seasonal forecasts consensually expect average rainfall for the later stage of the growing season (March to May); hence a longer, wetter than usual season that might benefit areas with delayed season onsets, is unlikely.