Regional Food and Nutrition Security Update Issue 3/2013 August 2013
• According to the latest SADC information (SADC VAA Report, July 2013 ) about 14 million people (10 % of the rural population) are food insecure in the 2013/2014 marketing year, an increase of about 23% from last year. Botswana, Madagascar and South Africa are not included in this figure. Stressed food insecurity conditions are also prevailing in Madagascar, particularly in southern areas.
• In addition, the regional context continues to be characterized by widespread chronic undernutrition, with stunting among under-five children above 30 percent in seven countries. Contributing factors include high HIV prevalence of above 10 percent in 9 countries, uneven economic growth distribution/opportunities, poor access to basic services, population migration and rapid urbanization.
• SADC estimates the overall cereal deficit for the 2013/14 marketing year at 3.93 million tonnes, just slightly below the 2012/13 marketing year (3.98 million tonnes) . All countries except Malawi, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia have estimated cereal deficits.
• The recent SARCOF regional climate outlook for the period November 2013 to March 2014 indicates that (with few exceptions) the bulk of SADC region is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, with likely impact on areas affected by risks of recurrent flood, and possible dry spells in low rainfall areas.
• Countries are urged to swiftly work on calibration/ domestication of the regional forecast and derive implications at subnational level by comparing with the historic trends. The national forecast, taking into consideration the local variability, would serve as a basis for multifaceted and multi-sectoral contingency scenarios.