SPECIAL NEWS REPORT
Rome, 6 March 2000 -- Harvest
prospects in southern Africa have been affected by adverse weather. Though
the season started normally, with timely, abundant and well-distributed
rains, except in a few locations, in January crops fell victim to a prolonged
dry spell in parts of Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland, South
Africa and Zimbabwe. Rains resumed from mid-February providing relief to
previously dry areas, but they were excessive in places and caused flooding
in low-lying areas of Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia.
In Mozambique, which had not yet fully recovered from last year's floods -- the worst in memory -- new floods affected some 400 000 persons, mostly in the Zambezi valley, but also in other low-lying areas in the central provinces of Sofala, Tete and Zambezia. In Malawi, 200 000 people have been displaced, mainly in southern areas along the Shire River, while in Zambia flooding has occurred along the Zambezi and Luangwa rivers.
Besides displacing people, the floods have submerged crops in the affected areas, compromising the food security of large numbers of families who now urgently need humanitarian assistance. However, so far the impact of the floods is not a significant threat to national food security. In Mozambique, the area lost is estimated at about 22 000 hectares, against 167 000 hectares lost to last year's devastating floods, which mainly affected southern provinces. But should the heavy rains continue in the coming weeks harvest prospects in Malawi and Mozambique could deteriorate.
Overall, the sub-region's 2001 aggregate cereal harvest is forecast to decline substantially from last year's above-average level due to reduced plantings and lower yields. The rains in mid-February arrived too late to prevent crop damage in several areas affected by the mid-season dry spell, while excessive precipitation has negatively affected yields in parts. The aggregate area planted to cereal crops is estimated to be lower than last year, mainly due to reductions in South Africa, in response to low prices, and in Zimbabwe, following resettlement of large-scale commercial farms.
FAO tentatively forecasts the sub-region's 2001 maize crop, which accounts for three-quarters of total cereal production, at about 13.8 million tonnes. This is 24 percent below last year's production and 15 percent below the average for the last five years. At the forecast level, carryover stocks in several countries of the sub-region, including South Africa, the largest maize producer and exporter, would only partially cover the decline in output and export availabilities would be sharply reduced in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March). Importation of maize from outside the sub-region could be necessary. The food supply situation is anticipated to be tight particularly in Angola, due to the persistent civil conflict, and in Zimbabwe where production is forecast to decrease sharply. Food difficulties are also anticipated for households in areas affected by floods in Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia.
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