The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) Bulletin No. 16/19 Volume 1: Food Security Forecast for the 2019/2020 Consumption Year



• The country received early and more rains this year compared to last year. A few districts, especially in the centre and north reported dry spells.

• The current food insecurity was driven by several shocks largely climatic including cyclone IDAI which resulted into flooding in the districts that border Mozambique in the southern parts of Malawi and the dry spells in the central and northern regions.

• Through the IPC process, population projected to be in phase 1 (minimal) is: 10,795,827 (68 %), those in phase 2 (stressed) is: 3,823,511 (24%) and 1,062,674 (7 %) in phase 3 (crisis) or worse.
The total number of people facing food gaps and require humanitarian assistance for 2 to 5 months is 1.062 million .

• Maize prices are generally higher than last year are projected to increase as households deplete their stocks during the lean season. Higher prices are likely to be in the southern part of the country typically experiencing production deficits (despite registering an increased production compared to last year ) and in the areas affected by floods.

• Urgent action is needed for the population in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) to save and protect their livelihoods and reduce food gaps.

• Based on the MVAC market situation analysis, cash-based transfers (CBT) would be the most appropriate modality for addressing food gaps for population in phase 3 or worse because markets will remain functional throughout the consumption year, all things being normal.