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Following the forecast issued by the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) on 5 January 2026, which indicated the likelihood of extreme heavy rainfall across several parts of the country, the Malawi Red Cross Society (MRCS) has activated its Simplified Early Action Protocol (sEAP) for Pluvial Floods.
Since the onset of the 2025/2026 rainfall season in November 2025, MRCS has been closely monitoring trigger thresholds using forecasts generated by DCCMS through both global and localized models (CoSMO). During this period, extreme rainfall events were recorded in several districts, with reported impacts in Nsanje, Chikwawa, and lakeshore areas including Nkhotakota. However, despite these observed impacts, MRCS was unable to activate the sEAP at that time due to limited forecast lead times.
According to the trigger statement, the Simplified Early Action Protocol is pre-activated when DCCMS issues an alert followed by a warning, thereby initiating Tier 1 – Forecast-Informed Readiness. This is based on the following
criteria:
• A rainfall forecast of ≥100–150 mm within 72 hours in key basins (including the Shire, Linthipe, and Lake Chilwa basins), with a lead time of 3–5 days;
• A cyclone forecast predicting ≥100 mm of rainfall within 24 hours in flood-prone districts, with a lead time of 3–5 days;
• A rainfall forecast combined with exposure analysis indicating that ≥30% of households are at risk, with a lead time of 3–5 days.
The sEAP is fully activated under Tier 2 – Observational and Activation when the following conditions are met:
• River gauge readings exceed the alert stage at two or more monitoring stations (real-time trigger);
• Inundation modelling projects that ≥30% of households in flood-risk zones will be affected, with a lead time of 2–5 days.
In line with these trigger thresholds, the current forecast meets the criteria for both Tier 1 and Tier 2 activation.
This places MRCS in a position to implement early actions in prioritized districts classified as being under severe risk (Category 10). These districts include Nkhotakota, Salima, parts of Nkhata Bay, Chitipa, Mulanje, and Phalombe. However, based on observed conditions in Salima District where soils are already highly saturated, the flood risk is expected to be particularly high. Consequently, MRCS will prioritize Salima District for early action activation.