Attachments
Key Messages
- Several districts in southern and central Malawi are anticipated to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to the rapid depletion of food stocks following below-average harvest caused by El Niño-induced weather. Furthermore, limited access to agricultural labor, and above-average prices for food and basic non-food commodities, particularly maize, compounded by below-average winter production, have further reduced access to food. Rising inflation and below-average terms of trade have diminished the purchasing power of poor and very poor households, limiting their access to sufficient food. In contrast, some districts in the central and northern regions are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes due to increased food access from their own harvests and sales of cash crops.
- The Malawi humanitarian food assistance program, targeting households impacted by the 2024 El Niño induced drought and Tropical Cyclone Freddy in 2023, has yet to start, despite FEWS NET and MVAC IPC analysis classifying all districts in southern Malawi in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from May 2024 through March 2025. According to government of Malawi, severely affected people Blantyre and Chikhwawa are likely to receive humanitarian assistance as of September 2024 representing 10 percent of the households, which is not sufficient to change the area level acute food insecurity classifications. The humanitarian assistance is expected to expand to districts of Nsanje, Phalombe, Balaka, Mwanza, Neno and Machinga in the coming months, though not enough to change the area level classification. In June, the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA) reported having secured about 100 million USD, covering only 50 percent of the of the required resources. The secured amount is equivalent to 161,576 MT maize equivalent, which is 40 percent below the required 261,574 MT.
- Prices of food, particularly key staples, continue to trend above last year and above the five-year average, while also registering seasonal increases. Maize prices in FEWS NET monitored markets increased by an average of 13 percent between June and July, 30 percent over last year and 180 percent above the five-year average. Prices of beans registered a 15 percent month on month increase, 103 percent above last year and nearly 200 percent above the five-year average. Prices of rice registered a 5 percent month on month increase, 35 percent above same time last year and 130 percent above the five-year average. These high prices will further restrict food access for households in southern Malawi who are already facing production deficits and below-average income opportunities.
- Malawi continues to face negative macro-economic conditions characterized by high inflation rate and shortage of foreign exchange. The Year-on-Year inflation rate for July 2024 was 33.7 percent slightly up from June. Food inflation is particularly high at around 40 percent, while non-food inflation stands around 22 percent. Despite a successful tobacco marketing season in which Malawi sold 132,000 metric tons of tobacco, 10 percent above last year’s production and earning around 400 million USD, with an estimated 40 percent income increase from previous year, the country still faces shortage of foreign currency reserve. According to the Reserve Bank of Malawi, the foreign reserves are sufficient to cover only 2.4 months of import cover, falling short of the World Bank recommended minimum period of 3.9 months.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Malawi Key Message Update August 2024: Lean season humanitarian assistance is likely to begin in the south in September, 2024.