SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS
Maize prices are rising more rapidly than normal in some of the local markets, a development that is likely to limit the food access of most poor households. Meanwhile, food aid distributions are underway in parts of the southern and northern regions as one way of addressing the current food shortage. The number of beneficiaries and amount of food distributed will increase as the season progresses. It is therefore important that donors honor their food aid pledges on time to avoid the currently serious situation deteriorating into a food crisis. In addition, there is urgent need for additional resources as the current pledges only amount to about half of what is required. The President has set up a Feed the Nation Fund through which well-wishers are asked to contribute whatever resources that could be used to feed households affected by the food shortage this season.
The government announced an export ban on maize and fertilizer, effective July 25. Exports of these commodities are currently insignificant, but the ban may help stop traders from exporting larger quantities of maize and fertilizer.
SEASONAL TIMELINE
CURRENT HAZARD SUMMARY
A majority of the local markets registered maize price increases in July, a development likely to increase the risk of food insecurity for many households. The majority of the markets with prices above MK20.00/kg are located in the southern region, where most of the people in need of food assistance are found.
FOOD SECURITY SUMMARY
The number of households running out of food from their own production continues to increase. These households are becoming increasingly dependent on the market for their food needs earlier than they normally would be. The drop in crop production this year implied that many households did not produce enough food to last them the whole season. The number of households running out of their own production at each point in time is higher than is normally the case. The resultant rising market demand for food, especially maize, is beginning to force maize prices up. If prices continue to rise, many more households, especially the poor, will be unable to meet their needs. As previously reported, the number of households at risk of food insecurity is estimated to be between 4.2 million to 4.6 million, with corresponding food aid requirements of about 270,000 MT to 414,000 MT maize equivalent in scenario 1 and 2, respectively. Scenario 1 assumes a price range of between MK19-23/kg, and scenario 2 assumes a price range of MK32-40/kg. Regardless of which scenario will prevail, the number of households at risk of food insecurity and the corresponding food aid requirements will continue to increase each month as the season progresses. According to the MVAC report, based on scenario 1 assumptions, the food aid requirements are expected to reach about 126,000 MT at the peak of the hungry season (January-March 2006). Figure 1 shows the quarterly food aid requirements for scenario 1 for the current consumption period.
Figure 1: Estimated Food Aid Needs from April 2005 to March 2006
Based on maize prices ranging between MK 19-23/kg.
The worst affected part of the country is the southern region, followed by the central region and then the northern region. The southern region was the hardest hit by the drought, and over 70 percent of the affected population is in the southern region. Another factor that contributes to the high numbers of people in need in the southern region is that the southern region is the most densely populated. Figure 1 shows that some of the households were in need of food aid as early as the first quarter of the consumption period (April to June), which also happens to be the harvesting period. This shows just how serious the situation is in those parts of the country where some households harvested almost nothing. According to the MVAC, these areas include the Lake Chilwa-Phalombe Plain, Rift Valley Escarpment, Central Karonga, Middle and Lower Shire Valley livelihood zones.
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