Malawi Food Security Outlook Update, September 2018
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes projected in central and southern Malawi
- Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across southern and central Malawi through March 2019, primarily due to production deficits. The worst-affected populations will be in Salima and Kasungu districts in central Malawi and most districts in southern Malawi. The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee acute food insecurity assessment and analysis results project the population in need of food assistance will be above average until the next harvest.
- Given below-average market supply, maize prices are trending about 11 percent above the five-year average and are likely to increase through early 2019, despite ADMARC is expected to begin releasing stocks onto the market in October. Labor- and livestock-to-maize terms of trade are declining, reducing food access for households that are more reliant on market purchases than usual due to the early start of the lean season.
- The increased likelihood of a weak El Niño event from September 2018 to May 2019 may cause average to below-average rainfall, which is likely to negatively impact 2019 production and agricultural labor opportunities.