Localized poor harvests and high staple prices lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in southern areas
Between October 2019 and March 2020, populations in southern areas will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity due to localized production shortfalls caused by heavy rains and flooding. Populations in most central and northern areas will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes through March 2020. In April and May, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes will likely emerge throughout the country with the start of the harvest.
Despite near-average national production, maize prices remain atypically high throughout the country. This is attributed to market dynamics influenced by localized production shortfalls in areas impacted by flooding, large purchases by traders and institutions immediately after the harvest, and production shortfalls in neighboring countries.
According to national and international forecasts, average rainfall is expected in the 2019/2020 season. This will likely lead to a normal agricultural production season and normal access to agricultural labor opportunities between October and January.