From June to September 2024, districts in southern Malawi are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. These conditions are driven by a significant reduction in food and cash crop production due to severe dry spells, reduced access to income, and above-average prices of food and basic non-food commodities. Most households in the south have not yet recovered from the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Freddy in 2023.
From October 2024 to January 2025, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in southern Malawi districts as the lean season begins toward the end of the year and households exhaust their food stocks. Additionally, four districts in central Malawi; Lilongwe, Mchinji, Nkhotakota, and Salima will also experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Furthermore, cities and towns with below-average income, limited employment opportunities, amid high food prices, specifically Blantyre, Zomba, Lilongwe, and Mzuzu. are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
In the June 2024 to January 2025 period, the areas of the highest concern are in southern Malawi, particularly in Nsanje district in the Lower Shire livelihood zone. The district received extremely below-average rainfall, leading to significant reductions in crop production levels. A FEWS NET assessment in April 2024 indicated that 44 percent of households already had no own-produced food at harvest time, while food prices were more than double compared to same time last year’s average and income-earning opportunities were below average.
FEWS NET is waiting to receive up-to-date information on planned and funded humanitarian food assistance. Even though the government made an El Niño response appeal in April 2024, funding levels remain unknown, and response planning is awaiting IPC analysis results from the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee. FEWS NET estimates that from June to September 2024, the number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes — predominantly in southern Malawi — will range from 2 to 3 million and is likely to increase to 3 to 4 million from October 2024 to January 2025.