Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across southern Malawi and localized areas of central Malawi through the peak of the January to March 2026 lean season. These outcomes are driven by the depletion of household own-produced food stocks following below-average 2025 harvests and limited purchasing power. Exceptionally above-average food prices and atypically low agricultural labor demand are expected to erode poor households’ purchasing power, constraining household access to market purchases. In contrast, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in the remaining central and northern districts, supported by own-produced food stocks and typical income from tobacco sales and agricultural labor.
Seasonal improvements in households’ food access, particularly in central Malawi, are anticipated in April and May 2026, driven by the likelihood of a 2026 average harvest and subsequent increases in income from crop sales and agricultural labor. As a result, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will most likely emerge in April and May 2026. In contrast, northern Malawi is expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, except for parts of Karonga District, where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to continue.
Southern Malawi remains the area of highest concern, with widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Neno, Mwanza, Blantyre, Thyolo, Mulanje, Phalombe, Chikwawa, and Nsanje districts. Poor households are increasingly reliant on market purchases amid constrained purchasing power following atypically below-average crop production during the 2024/25 season.
FEWS NET estimates that between 2.0 to 2.49 million people will require humanitarian food assistance during the upcoming January to March 2026 lean season. A decreased number of people requiring assistance compared to the previous lean season, January to March 2025, is attributed to modest improvements in national maize production (approximately 5 percent higher than last year). Plans for humanitarian food assistance distributions are not yet finalized and are likely to be delayed due to transitions to the newly elected government.
