- According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) of 5 July, from May to September 2024, an estimated 4.1 million people are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 56,000 in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). From October 2024 to March 2025, which coincides with the lean season, food insecurity is expected to worsen with an estimated 5.7 million people in IPC3+, out of which 416,000 in Emergency. The main drivers of acute food insecurity are (i) El Niño delaying the onset of rains and causing prolonged dry spells; (ii) Food prices trending over 160% above the five-year average; (iii) Economic decline, high commodity prices, and inflation.
- Malnutrition levels remain high and are likely to worsen during the lean period. The SMART nutrition survey conducted in April 2024 shows that several districts are just below the 5% threshold for acceptable levels, with one district at the 6% alert level.
- The probability of La Niña exceeds 60% with likely effects potentially leading to floods and crop and animal loss.
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