WFP Madagascar - External Situation Report #1 October 2018
1.26 million people and 5 regions affected by rain shortfalls and failed harvests
The food security and nutritional situation is alarming due to failed harvests and rain shortfalls
Around 400,438 people are in IPC emergency phase and 860,883 people are in crisis phase, in the southern and south-eastern regions
WFP plans on reaching 849,000 people from this population
The results of the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis conducted in June 2018 in southern and south-eastern parts of Madagascar highlighted the alarming food security situation in these regions.
During the period March to June 2018, most of the districts remained in IPC phase 3 (crisis). However, in absence of humanitarian assistance, these districts would have been in IPC phase 4 (emergency). For the post-harvest period from July to September 2018, the Beloha district is expected to transition to IPC phase 4, while the other districts will remain in IPC phases 3 and 2 (stress). According to IPC analysis, during the period July to September 2018, 400,438 people are in IPC phase 4, and 860,883 people are in IPC phase 3 in the southern, south-western and south-eastern regions of the country.
According to Crop and Food Security Assessment (CFSAM) of August 2018, rainfall deficits and fall armyworm attacks have had significant impact on food production levels (particularly staple crops such as maize and cassava), compromising access to food for the majority of households.
As per the El Nino Outlook (September 2018) and SARCOF previsions, the likelihood of another El Nino materializing is high. Currently, it stands at 50-55% chance of it happening in the northern hemisphere in autumn and 65-70% chance of developing during the upcoming winter. If the El Nino event materializes, it is expected to last until mid-2019. While current forecasts indicate a weak to moderate El Nino event, the link between intensity and impact is not proved to be strong, as in the past, weak El Nino have led to significant droughts in some regions. Furthermore, due to the impacts of past weather events or non-climatic factors, some regions are highly vulnerable. Based on forecasts, the growing seasons are likely to be affected in Southern Africa, East Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines.