UNOSAT Madagascar –Tropical Cyclone AVA-18: Population Exposure, as of 04 January 2018

Published on 04 Jan 2018 View Original


A strong tropical cyclone AVA-18 in the Indian Ocean is heading southwest towards coasts of Madagascar. It is expected to make landfall and continue southward along the eastern coast of Madagascar on Friday 5 January 2018, likely affecting mostly the region of Analanjirofo. The tropical cyclone will reach a maximum wind speed of 130 km/h. Based on the observed and predicted cyclone track as of 4th January 2018 (00:00 UTC), sustained wind speeds zones and population data from WorldPop, UNITAR-UNOSAT conducted a population exposure analysis for Madagascar. ~18,600,000 people are exposed to wind speed of at least 60 km/h :

  • 1,921,571 people are exposed to 120 km/h winds

  • 8,508,507 people are exposed to the 90 km/h winds,

  • 8,191,489 people are exposed to the 60 km/h winds.

Taking into account the zones with a flood hazard of 25 years return period within the predicted wind speed zones, about 156,300 people are living in these areas and are potentially exposed to 120 km/h winds. About 795,500 people are exposed to floods in the 90 km/h sustained wind speed zone and 571,500 people in the 60 km/h sustained wind speed zone.