Madagascar + 1 more

Tropical cyclone 18S (Hary) warning #17 (Final warning)

WTXS31 PGTW 131500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

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WARNING POSITION:

131200Z7 --- NEAR 29.5S6 56.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S6 56.7E8

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FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

140000Z5 --- 30.3S6 57.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL

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REMARKS:

131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 29.7S8 57.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 30 NM TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 24 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//