Madagascar + 1 more

Tropical cyclone 18S (Hary) warning #14

WTXS31 PGTW 121500

IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

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WARNING POSITION:

121200Z6 --- NEAR 26.4S2 54.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S2 54.5E4

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FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

130000Z4 --- 28.9S9 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS

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24 HRS, VALID AT:

131200Z7 --- 31.1S5 58.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS

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36 HRS, VALID AT:

140000Z5 --- 32.8S3 60.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS

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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

141200Z8 --- 34.1S8 62.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

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REMARKS:

121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 27.0S9 55.0E0.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121100Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY RESIDES TO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE EXTENT HAS REMAINED CONSTANT OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 18S SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 AND 131500Z0.//