Madagascar + 1 more

Tropical cyclone 18S (Hary) warning #13

WTXS31 PGTW 120300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:

120000Z3 --- NEAR 23.5S0 53.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 53.1E9

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FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

121200Z6 --- 25.8S5 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS

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24 HRS, VALID AT:

130000Z4 --- 28.1S1 56.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS

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36 HRS, VALID AT:

131200Z7 --- 30.3S6 58.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS

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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

140000Z5 --- 32.5S0 60.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

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REMARKS:

120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 24.1S7 53.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. A 112314Z2 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL AND A LARGE BANDING FEATURE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ARE EVIDENT IN THE LATEST IMAGERY AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TC 18S AFTER A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND 130300Z7.//

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