Madagascar

Tropical cyclone 10S (Dina) warning Nr 014

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 014

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

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WARNING POSITION:

240600Z2 --- NEAR 25.3S0 52.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S0 52.7E4

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FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 27.6S5 52.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS

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24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 28.6S6 53.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -
040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS

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36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 29.6S7 54.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS

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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 30.6S9 57.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL

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REMARKS:

240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 25.9S6 52.7E4.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT TC 10S (DINA) HAS BEGUN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY MID PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 26 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (NO NAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND 250900Z6.//