Madagascar + 1 more

Southern Africa – Tropical Storm Eloise Flash Update No.2, As of 19 January 2021



• Tropical Storm Eloise, which has strengthened since 18 January, has made landfall near the north-eastern coastal town of Antalaha, Madagascar, in the evening of 19 January.

• Tropical Storm Eloise is expected to bring heavy rains to affected districts of Madagascar before re-emerging in the Mozambique Channel on 21 January and strengthening—potentially into a Tropical Cyclone—as it moves towards southern Mozambique.

• Government and humanitarian actors in both countries remain on high alert and have activated mechanisms at national and local levels for a possible response.


Tropical Storm Eloise has made landfall near the north-eastern town of Antalaha, Madagascar, in the evening of 19 January, according to MeteoFrance. The storm is expected to bring heavy rains, which could generate floods and landslides in northern Madagascar. Eloise is a “dangerous system with heavy rains that can last for more than 24 hours and strong winds”, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Ahead of the storm’s landfall, Meteo Madagascar placed multiple regions on the country’s north-eastern coast—Sava, Analanjirofo, Bealanana, Befandriana Avaratra and Mandritsara—on red alert (‘imminent danger’).

The storm is expected to decrease in intensity as it crosses Madagascar, before it remerges in the Mozambique Channel on 21 January, where it is likely to re-strengthen, potentially to a Tropical Cyclone. In Mozambique, preliminary forecasts indicate a shift in the trajectory of the storm from the central part of the country to a potential landfall in southern Mozambique on 23 January, between Inhambane and Gaza provinces, according to the Mozambican National Meteorological Institute (INAM). However, the storm’s trajectory remains uncertain and it is possible that the system could turn southwest and remain at sea, according to MeteoFrance’s latest bulletin. Meanwhile, the Inhanombe and Mutamba basins in southern Mozambique are both at alert levels—in addition to the Buzi and Pungoe basins in central Mozambique—according to the latest update from National Directorate of Water Resource Management (DNGRH).

Other country’s weather services, including South Africa, are closely monitoring Tropical Storm Eloise’s possible path, as it could also impact other areas of Southern Africa, including South Africa and Eswatini.


Humanitarians and authorities in Madagascar are coordinating preparedness activities and, led by the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC), have activated response mechanisms at national and local levels, including contingency plans, evacuation plans, emergency operation centres and early warning system at the community level. Aerial assessments using photo and geo-tracking system are also planned for the impact of the storm.

In Mozambique, the National Institute for Management and Disaster Risk Reduction (INGD) is leading emergency readiness efforts. In support, the Humanitarian Country Team has contacted coordination focal points and humanitarian partners operating in the southern provinces to prepare for a possible response. At the same time, response is ongoing to the needs generated by Tropical Storm Chalane in December 2020, which impacted areas previously devastated by Cyclone Idai in 2019.


UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
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