Attachments
SUMMARY OF CRISIS AND KEY FINDINGS
Madagascar is a low-income country facing endemic poverty, climate and economic shocks. Madagascar's Grand Sud and Grand Sud-Est regions face ongoing drought and malnutrition, with 357 900 children projected to be acutely malnourished by August 2025, including 83 400 severe cases. The IPC analysis forecasts a peak crisis in January-April 2025, with some districts in IPC Phase 3 (Serious) and others in Phase 2 (Alert).
Although humanitarian aid is expected to stabilise people's food situation, the food insecurity situation has deteriorated compared with the current period. Climatic impacts, particularly low rainfall and cyclones/floods in certain regions, combined with the lean season, have increased household vulnerability.
During the second projected period (May to August 2025), an overall improvement in the food situation is expected, although pockets of vulnerability will remain. The number of people suffering from high levels of acute food insecurity is expected to decrease to around 1.12 million, or 11% of the population.
Looking ahead, if weather conditions do not improve from February 2025, a potential downturn in agricultural production in 2025 is increasingly likely to occur, which would exacerbate acute food insecurity conditions later in the year. Furthermore, the passage of cyclones has the potential to disrupt livelihoods and cause damage to standing crops, outcomes that could contribute to worsening food insecurity conditions.
Malaria epidemics have increased the burden on Madagascar's already weak health services. More than 1.2 million malaria cases were reported across six regions--including Androy, Anosy, Atsimo Andrefana, Atsimo Atsinanana, Fitovinany, and Vatovavy--between January and September 2024, accounting for 45% of the country’s total cases.
In addition, 20 cyclone-damaged basic health centres are urgently in need of rehabilitation, a situation that impacts the provision of health care to more than 21 600 children. Approximately, 500 000 people will still need WASH interventions to mitigate the risks of malaria and polio epidemics.
As of 18 March 2025, at least 15 000 people were affected after Tropical Storm Jude made its second landfall on 15 March, primarily in Atsimo Andrefana Region in the south. The storm resulted in one death and displaced 10 587 people across 24 temporary sites.